Rather, the GFS generally forecast Sandy to track toward the central North Atlantic Ocean. In stark contrast to the ECMWF's forecasts were those of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, which consistently forecast a track that generally did not have a leftward component of motion after Sandy left the Caribbean. landfall very early in Sandy's life cycle.
Sandy was first classified as a tropical depression 1200 UTC 22 October, and although it formed approximately 1 week before its final landfall, forecasting centers such as the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) produced relatively excellent forecasts regarding Sandy's eventual U.S. Naturally, advance warning of systems such as Sandy is essential when trying to limit the amount of damage to lives and property. In fact, Hall and Sobel estimate that a storm of Hurricane Sandy's magnitude (or greater) would be expected to impact the coastline of New Jersey at a similar angle approximately once every 714 years. was the unusual left turn Sandy made while at approximately 35°N that allowed it to cross the New Jersey coastline at close to a perpendicular angle, which considerably increased the damage storm surge caused. One of the reasons for the significant impact on life and property in the U.S. Hurricane Sandy (2012) is well known for its great impact on both lives and property along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions of the United States upon landfall shortly before 0000 UTC 30 October. Simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model using an ECMWF-like cumulus parameterization in conjunction with GFS initial conditions yield forecasts whose accuracy is similar to that of ECMWF forecasts at extended time ranges (up to 1 week before landfall). This paper demonstrates that these differences were caused not by resolution or initial condition differences but rather due almost exclusively to choice of cumulus parameterization. This was also generally true of their respective ensemble members. landfall, while the latter routinely forecast a track toward the central North Atlantic. The operational versions of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models exemplify this difference over their runs early in Sandy's life cycle, as the former routinely forecast a storm which would make a U.S. The extremely damaging Hurricane Sandy (2012) is noteworthy for the significant track bifurcation among several forecast models approximately 6–7 days before landfall.
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